Our panel lets you know what to expect when the Nittany Lions take on the Trojans in a battle of Big Ten powers in LA Memorial Coliseum
Mark Brennan
No. 4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0) takes on USC (3-2, 1-2) in Big Ten action at L.A. Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles Saturday. These are the Lions247 Expert Score Predictions for the matchup, which will kick off at 3:30 p.m. Eastern and be carried by CBS and Paramount+.
On Sunday, our friends at Caesars Sportsbook established James Franklin's Nittany Lions as 4-point favorites over Lincoln Riley's Trojans. The over/under was 48.0. While those numbers may change, they are what we will use for the sake of the competition.
Our popular game-week picks panel includes the four Lions247 full-time staffers, former Penn State All-Big Ten offensive tackle Keith "Goon" Conlin, special guest Ed001, and many of the long-time site contributors who help moderate the boards and/or contribute content to Lions247.
This year, we are adding 247Sports national recruiting expert Brian Dohn to the panel. Also, we're going to include a prediction from a writer who covers each week's PSU opponent, getting help from our 247Sports sister sites when possible. This week, we have TWO scribes from the outstanding 247Sports site USCFootball.com pitching in.
As always, your feedback on our predictions is not only welcomed, but also encouraged. But remember, if you disagree with something you see, just don't say that you have a different opinion, but please let us know what it is.
And, of course, we want to see your prediction as well. So please join in.
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247SPORTS STAFF
MARK BRENNAN (Lions247 Staff)
COMMENT: Back in August, I had this penciled in as a loss for Penn State. My rationale? James Franklin and his staff are such creatures of habit, which is a significant positive when it comes to the usually structured routines of a college football season. But when forced out of those in-season routines — see the 2020 and 2021 seasons that were impacted by COVID — it can sometimes be tough for them to adjust on the fly. And the Lions will literally be doing that this week, driving to Harrisburg and then flying to Los Angeles THURSDAY — meaning they have a different departure airport (it is usually the small one in State College), a different departure day (it is usually Friday) and a completely different schedule on Friday. Just so many variables.
But then I watched USC's offensive and defensive fronts struggle in key situations in Big Ten road losses to Michigan and Minnesota. The game against the Golden Gophers — a team that opened the season with a home loss to North Carolina (which later gave up 70 points in its own loss to James Madison) and was 2-3 at the time — was particularly troubling. USC made it into the red zone only twice in Minneapolis. And the Trojans allowed the offensively challenged Gophers to grind out TD drives of 65 and 75 yards in the final 7:08 of the game after leading 17-10 midway through the fourth quarter.
We can talk all we want about the skill players on these teams. But Penn State should have the distinct advantage in terms of talent and depth in the trenches, and that will be the difference. Just as it was in the Trojans' first two Big Ten losses. It'll be interesting to see where the Men of Troyare mentally and emotionally after being effectively eliminated from the College Football Playoff.
BOLD PREDICTION: Penn State running back Nick Singletonwill return from injury to rush for more than 100 yards. Fellow RB Kaytron Allen won't hit the century mark, but he will have a pair of TDs on power runs in goal-to-go situations.
PREDICTION: Penn State 24, USC 20 (PSU -4, 44 total)
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TYLER DONOHUE (Lions247 Staff)
COMMENT: Although this is no longer a top-10 showdown as anticipated, USC has the blue-chip talent to match up with Penn State athletically across the field. This is also a Trojans team that now knows its back is up against the wall at 3-2 after an upset loss. But will it respond with passion or frustration when Penn State comes to town? Based on a 5-7 record in the last 12 games and a deflating finish last Saturday night in Minneapolis, I'm not giving Lincoln Riley's bunch the benefit of the doubt.
Penn State connects on some early punches, from both sides of the ball, to establish a bit of separation before halftime. As the second half progresses, I expectPSU to assert itself in the trenches. The Nittany Lions get into an offensive groove on the ground and produce defensive pass rush success to squashUSC's late comeback attempt.
BOLD PREDICTION: Abdul Carter shines on Penn State's biggest stage of 2024, unleashed with some new defensive wrinkles. He finishes with at least three tackles for loss and forces a momentum-swinging turnover to help keep USC out of reach.
PREDICTION: Penn State 31, USC 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)
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DANIEL GALLEN (Lions247 Staff)
COMMENT: This game doesn't have the same luster it did a week ago at this time, when we were looking at a nationally televised top-10 matchup for Penn State and USC. A loss at Minnesota can do that to a program. But while the stakes might have changed in terms of the rankings and the Trojans' postseason hopes, it's an important game for the perception of the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country going on the road to play an unranked team. Even if that team is USC, things look different on paper. The matchup goes from a prove-it game, a chance for the Nittany Lions to score a road win over a ranked team to a game that, on paper, they should win. Part of college football is about managing perception, and it's another battle for Penn State to fight.
As for on the field, the things that Penn State does well contrast nicely with some of USC's weaknesses. The Nittany Lions are rushing for 217.8 yards per game, which ranks No. 17 nationally. The Trojans are surrendering 158.6 yards per game on the ground, which is tied for No. 87. USC ranks No. 78 nationally in rushing offense (149.6 yards per game), while Penn State ranks No. 4 in stopping the run (76.2 yards per game).
One area from Penn State that I'll be watching close: The secondary. Can freshman Dejuan Lane play at safety so Jaylen Reed can play the Lion? Will the cornerback group led by A.J. Harris, Jalen Kimber, Cam Miller and Elliot Washingtonbe up to the task against the USC wide receivers, led by Zachariah Branch? Penn State might be able to control the game on the ground, but USC can score quickly.
The Nittany Lions, though, feel like the better team with more to play for right now.
BOLD PREDICTION: The Penn State defense picks off USC quarterback Miller Moss three times and returns one of those interceptions for a touchdown. Safety Zakee Wheatley has been playing well of late. Keep an eye on the turnover king.
PREDICTION: Penn State 34, USC 27 (PSU -7, 61 total)
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TYLER CALVARUSO (Lions247 Recruiting Expert)
COMMENT: The way I see it, this one will be won in the trenches. Penn State's defensive line has been firing on all cylinders as of late and USC's offensive line has come under fire for its performance this season. Trojans quarterback Miller Moss has been hit more than any other FBS quarterback. Pass protection was a big issue in a loss to Michigan and USC's inability to keep Moss off his back reared its ugly head last weekend against Minnesota.
USC's defensive line depth is also in question at this point of the season. First-year defensive coordinator and former Penn State defensive back D'Anton Lynn has done a nice job with the Trojans, but the Nittany Lions should be able to run the ball against USC. Getting Nick Singleton back this week will only help in that venture.
Heading to California will be a real test for Penn State and what transpires inside of the LA Memorial Coliseumon Saturday afternoon could wind up speaking to the true nature of this Nittany Lions squad. That said, I like Penn State to go on the road and make a statement against the Trojans.
PREDICTION: Penn State 27, USC 17 (PSU -10, 44 total)
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BRIAN DOHN (247Sports National Recruiting Expert)
COMMENT: This is interesting because it has implications for the College Football Playoff. USC already dropped games to Michigan and Minnesota, and it is hard to imagine the Trojans getting into the playoff with three losses. Meanwhile, this begins an interesting stretch of games for the Nittany Lions, and a win puts them into a favorite role to get into the playoff. For me, it comes down to how well Penn State runs the ball, and it should have success in doing so given its offensive line, and if Nick Singleton can be a workhorse.
PREDICTION: Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
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RYAN ABRAHAM(USCFootball.com — 247Sports USC Site)
COMMENT:I do buy into the travel aspect playing a role and find it interesting that Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones are just 1-8 this season. But I think that USC is going to miss Eric Gentry on defense, won't be able to block Penn State's pass rush and won't be able to get it done on Saturday.
For the Trojans to get the win it can't turn the ball over like they have in previous games and need to figure out a way to slow down the Lions' edge rushers. These Big Ten games have been way lower scoring than I am used to, so I will go with…
PREDICTION:PSU 31, USC 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)
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R.J. ABEYTIA (USCFootball.com — 247Sports USC Site)
COMMENT:If USC protects quarterback Miller Moss, it's going to be in the game for four quarters. I think the Trojans can move the ball and score if they give him time to operate. But with the line play I saw from Penn State last Saturday, on both sides of the ball,USC has yet to prove it can handle that for four quarters. Until I see the Trojans do it, it's hard for me to expect that to happen.
Penn State has shown it can shut down good quarterbacks. It's shown it can rush the passer. USC has not shown it can protect the passer consistently enough. That's not a good formula in terms of the alignment for USC. That's not what you want coming into Saturday.
PREDICTION:Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
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SIMULATION
EA SPORTS COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2025
COMMENT: In our season predictions, we gave the floor to the new college football video game. We're going to do the same thing here. I started a dynasty with Penn State, and I'll be simulating on a week-by-week basis through the 2024 season.
Last week, the virtual Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the season against UCLA. And this week, those same fictional Nittany Lions, who were ranked No. 15, made it two in a row with a 49-35 loss to No. 22 USC.
The X-factor was Trojans quarterback Miller Moss, who threw for 398 yards and four touchdowns, with wide receivers Zachariah Branch (10 catches, 138 yards, one touchdown), Kyron Hudson (three catches, 98 yards, two touchdowns) and Duce Robinson (six catches, 96 yards) all turning in big games.
USC also got a big game in the trenches from virtual Bear Alexander — Alexander's real-life counterpart left the program — with three sacks, while safety Akili Arnold had an interception.
For Penn State, quarterback Drew Allar completed 70 percent of his passes for 302 yards and three touchdowns with an interception, and wide receiver Harrison Wallace had a big day with five catches for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receivers Liam Clifford (eight catches, 85 yards) and Julian Fleming (three catches, 50 yards, one touchdown) also chipped in.
Running back Nick Singleton continued to be dynamic on the ground with 15 catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns.
The defense managed to get only one sack, with defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas recording it. He had two tackles for loss, while linebacker Kobe King and defensive end Abdul Carter each had a tackle for loss, too. But it was a busy day for the secondary. Safety Zakee Wheatley had a team-high 11 tackles, while cornerback Jalen Kimber added eight and safety KJ Winston had six.
At 4-2, the Nittany Lions have dropped to No. 25 in the national polls entering their second bye week of the season.
PREDICTION: USC 49, Penn State 35 (USC -14, 84 total)
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CONTRIBUTORS
KEITH "GOON" CONLIN (Former Player)
COMMENT: Let me get this off my chest — I'm petrified of this game. Long travel is definitely a thing. Not a good thing either. Scared of getting jumped out there and not recovering. James Franklin has been around the block a few times and we get the late victory. Not going to be easy, but the boys take it in the end.
PREDICTION: Penn State 21, USC 14 (PSU -7, 35 total)
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ED001 (Special Guest)
COMMENT: Penn State travels to Los Angeles to play a 3-2 USC team. The Trojans have a good passing attack but were held to 17 points Saturday at Minnesota. Nick Singleton should return to put another explosive element into the PSU offense. This game is close for a while but the Lions wear USC down in the second half as both the offensive and defensive fronts physically take over the game.
PREDICTION: Penn State 27, USC 17 (PSU -10, 44 total)
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MARK HARRINGTON (PlaybookMark)
COMMENT: The Nittany Lions' traditional slow start is a concern in this one, particularly if PSU allows USC to get an early edge. The Lions' line play should be an advantage, particularly with the new offense distributing the ball around to a variety of weapons. All in all this will be a hard-fought one, but Penn State should have the talent and depth to outpace USC's push to capture another Big Ten win.
PREDICTION: Penn State 30, USC 24 (PSU -6, 54 total)
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SCOTT COLE (Psu96)
COMMENT: The first true test of the 2024 season is here as the Nittany Lions hit the road for a monster game at LA Memorial Coliseum against a wounded USC team that inexplicably dropped its last game at Minnesota. This will be a big test for a Penn State squad that has often started slow, but done a great job in second halves. It must play a complete game this week or second-half adjustments won't mean much. On defense, the Nittany Lions need to get pressure on Miller Moss early and often so that he doesn't have time to find holes in coverage. On offense, Penn State has to be ready to score from the opening kickoff. A slow start that keeps the defense on the field a lot is not going to get it done. Michigan and Minnesota provided the template. Be physical and run downhill at USC's defense all game long, and the Trojans will wear down. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are going to get a lot of work in this one, and it will pay off in the fourth quarter.
PREDICTION: Penn State 27, USC 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)
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TOM HOFFMAN (underscoreTom)
COMMENT: Penn State is beat up and has gone into a shell a bit offensively the last two weeks.Slow starts can't happen on the road. USC has struggled on the road, but I expect a better showing at home from the Trojans. If PSU starts slow or can't get a passing game going, this score gets flipped.
PREDICTION: Penn State 21, USC 20 (PSU -1, 41 total)
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DONOVAN NEAL (PSUMtnBike)
COMMENT: USC is far better than its record and lack of ranking indicates. It's a long trip out West for a Penn State team that seems to spend the first half of games sleep-walking. If that continues this week, the Nittany Lions will fly home with a loss. I believe they will be ready and win the battle in the trenches.
PREDICTION: Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
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NIRAV DALAL (PlaybookNirav)
COMMENT: There are two things that I'm paying attention to this week. The first is that Lincoln Riley feels like a few plays have not gone the Trojans' way and that's the difference between their losses and wins. I agree. This week, they put it together. I also agree withour Lions 247 staff that Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has been only selectively showing the playbook. That changes this week. I expect a a slugfest of both offenses moving and scoring. Not quite reminiscent of the2017 Rose Bowl, but not far from it.
PREDICTION: Penn State 38, USC 34 (PSU -4, 72 total)
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ROB RIVA (rriva)
COMMENT:I'vegone back and forth on this one since the start of the year, with Penn State's slow starts and unsettling special teams as issues creating concern. At the end of the day, though, this game comes down to the trenches, which is where Penn State has a decisive advantage on both sides. If Penn State runs the ball anddoesn'tdo stupid or unnecessary things on offense, it wins. IfI'mUSC,I'mlooking to neutralize the Nittany Lions pass rush by watching the Bowling Green game, though if Penn State can (finally) get out to a quick start, that may not be a tactic the Trojans can hang their hats on. It's put up or shut up now for Penn State.
PREDICTION: Penn State 24, USC 20 (PSU -4, 44 total)
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RECAP
LIONS247 / 247SPORTS STAFF / EA
MARK BRENNAN: Penn State 24, USC 20 (PSU -4, 44 total)
TYLER DONOHUE: Penn State 31, USC 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)
DANIEL GALLEN: Penn State 34, USC 27 (PSU -7, 61 total)
TYLER CALVARUSO: Penn State 27, USC 17 (PSU -10, 44 total)
BRIAN DOHN: Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
RYAN ABRAHAM:Penn State 31, USC 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)
R.J. ABEYTIA:Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
EA SPORTS: USC 49, Penn State 35 (USC -14, 84 total)
STAFF/EA AVERAGE: Penn State 30.5, USC 25.1 (PSU -5.4, 55.6 total)
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GOON: Penn State 21, USC 14 (PSU -7, 35 total)
ED: Penn State 27, USC 17 (PSU -10, 44 total)
MARK HARRINGTON: Penn State 30, USC 24 (PSU -6, 54 total)
SCOTT COLE: Penn State 27, USC 20 (PSU -7, 47 tota)
TOM HOFFMAN: Penn State 21, USC 20 (PSU -1, 41 total)
DONOVAN NEAL: Penn State 31, USC 24 (PSU -7, 55 total)
NIRAV DALAL: Penn State 38, USC 34 (PSU -4, 72 total)
ROB RIVA: Penn State 24, USC 20 (PSU -4, 44 total)
CONTRIBUTOR AVERAGE: Penn State 27.4, USC 21.6 (PSU -5.8, 49.0 total)
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OVERALL AVERAGE: Penn State 28.9, USC 23.4 (PSU -5.5, 52.3 total)
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FAST FACTS
FAST FACTS
Picked Penn State:Everybody except EA
Picked USC:EA
Widest Margin For Penn State:PSU -11 (Donohue, Abraham)
Widest Margin For USC:USC -14 (EA)
Caesars Sportsbook Line (Oct. 6): PSU -4.0
Picked Penn State To Cover: Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Dohn, Abraham, Abeytia, Goon, Ed, Harrington, Cole, Neal
Picked Penn State NOT To Cover: EA, Hoffman
Push: Brennan, Dalal, Riva
Caesars Sportsbook Total (Oct. 6): 48.0
Highest Total: 84 (EA)
Lowest Total:35 (Goon)
Over: Donohue, Gallen, Dohn, Abraham, Abeytia, EA, Harrington, Neal, Dalal
Under: Brennan, Calvaruso, Goon, Ed, Cole, Hoffman, Riva
Push: None
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LAST GAME
LINE: Penn State -27.5
ACTUAL SPREAD: Penn State 27, UCLA 11 (PSU -16)
CLOSEST WINNER TO THE ACTUAL SPREAD: Dohn (PSU -20)
WINNERS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Calvaruso, Dohn, Opposing Team Writer, EA, Harrington, Cole, Neal
OVER/UNDER: 44.5
ACTUAL TOTAL: 38
CLOSEST TO THE TOTAL: Calvaruso (41)
WINNERS AGAINST THE TOTAL: Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Cole
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STANDINGS
2024 SEASON STANDINGS STRAIGHT UP (Record/Alphabetical)
Brennan: 5-0
Calvaruso: 5-0
Cole: 5-0
Conlin: 5-0
Dalal: 5-0
Donohue: 5-0
Dohn: 5-0
Ed: 5-0
Gallen: 5-0
Harrington: 5-0
Hoffman: 5-0
Neal: 5-0
Opponent Reporters: 5-0
Riva: 5-0
EA: 4-1
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2024 SEASON STANDINGS AGAINST THE SPREAD (Record/Alphabetical)
Cole: 4-1
Dohn: 4-1
Gallen: 4-1
Hoffman: 4-1
Neal: 4-1
Brennan: 3-2
Calvaruso: 3-2
Dalal: 3-2
Donohue: 3-2
Ed: 3-2
Harrington: 3-2
Opponent Reporter: 3-2
EA: 2-3
Riva: 2-3
Goon: 1-4
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